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Mark Cannizzaro previews the NFC South as The Post gives division-by-division breakdowns ahead of the 2023 NFL season.
1. New Orleans Saints
Coach: Dennis Allen
2022 record: 7-10
O/U wins: 9.5
Key additions: QB Derek Carr, QB Jake Haener, RB Jamaal Williams, RB Kendre Miller, WR Bryan Edwards, TE Foster Moreau, TE Jimmy Graham, DT Bryan Bresee
Key departures: QB Andy Dalton, RB Mark Ingram, RB David Johnson, WR Jarvis Landry, WR Marquez Callaway, TE Adam Trautman, DT David Onyemata, DT Shy Tuttle, DE Marcus Davenport, LB Kaden Elliss
First-and-goal: It’s all about Carr and whether he can become the Saints’ next Drew Brees, meaning a long-term answer at QB who can lead the team to the playoffs. Carr was wildly productive for the Raiders, but not enough for postseason success. The Saints return some key skill position players: WRs Michael Thomas and Chris Olave and RB Alvin Kamara (who will miss the first three games on suspension). Williams rushed for 1,066 yards and an NFL-high 17 TDs for Detroit last season.
Fourth-and-long: The Saints had 48 sacks in 2022, but struggled to stop the run. That is an issue to monitor. So, too, is how quickly Kamara can become a factor after the three-game suspension.
Cann’s Call: 10-7. The division is the weakest in the league, which will benefit the Saints. Carr has much to prove, though, to show he can lead this team to the playoffs.
2. Carolina Panthers
Coach: Frank Reich
2022 record: 7-10
O/U wins: 7.5
Key additions: QB Bryce Young, QB Andy Dalton, RB Miles Sanders, WR Adam Thielen, WR DJ Chark, WR Jonathan Mingo, TE Hayden Hurst, S Vonn Bell, DT Shy Tuttle
Key departures: QB Sam Darnold, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR DJ Moore
First-and-goal: Can Young, the No. 1-overall pick, end the Carolina QB drought of Teddy Bridgewater, Darnold, Baker Mayfield, etc.? He looks dynamic and it’s his team. Mentorship from Dalton and the QBs coach, former NFL veteran Josh McCown, should help. Sanders is coming off his best year — 1,269 rushing yards and 11 TDs for the Eagles.
Fourth-and-long: The Panthers’ defense was a letdown last season, ranked 25th, including 27th against the pass. The pass rush was poor, with 35 sacks, and the Panthers made just 10 INTs. New defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero was hired from Denver to change those numbers. Reich comes to Carolina with a modest 37-28-1 record as a head coach in Indianapolis. But he never had a franchise QB. He hopes he has found one in Young.
Cann’s Call: 9-8. The Panthers, with poor QB play, nearly won the NFC South last season. Young has a chance to be a star.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Coach: Arthur Smith
2022 record: 7-10
O/U wins: 8.5
Key additions: QB Taylor Heinicke, RB Bijan Robinson, WR Mack Hollins, WR Scotty Miller, TE Jonnu Smith, S Jesse Bates, DL Calais Campbell, DL David Onyemata, DL, G Matthew Bergeron
Key departures: QB Marcus Mariota, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, WR Damiere Byrd, TE MyCole Pritt
First-and-goal: The Falcons have one of the best O-lines in the league and that will combine with strong young skill-position players like TE Kyle Pitts, WR Drake London and newcomer Robinson. The Atlanta defense was ranked in the bottom five last season, but added several veterans to the mix this season. How much improvement can those players mean for the unit?
Fourth-and-long: This is QB Desmond Ridder’s team, backed up by journeyman Heinicke, which is not an inspiring tandem. Ridder completed 73 of 115 passes for 708 yards and two TDs while the team went 2-2 under his command last year. Ridder’s sample size isn’t great. He passed for just more than 700 yards in his four starts, less than 200 yards per game. That kind of production isn’t sustainable in this passing league. Pitts went from averaging 60.4 receiving yards per game in 2021 to 35.6 last season before he injured his knee. His targets were down. He needs more targets, because he’s one of the most talented skill-position players on the roster.
Cann’s Call: 7-10. The QB situation is a concern. The weak division will keep the Falcons competitive, but this is not a playoff team.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coach: Todd Bowles
2022 record: 8-9
O/U wins: 6.5
Key additions: QB Baker Mayfield, RB Chase Edmonds
Key departures: QB Tom Brady, RB Leonard Fournette, RB Giovani Bernard, WR Scotty Miller, WR Julio Jones, WR Breshad Perriman, TE Cameron Brate, TE Kyle Rudolph
First-and-goal: Despite Brady’s retirement, there is a good group of skill position talent returning, including WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and TE Cade Otton, who led all rookies at his position in receptions in 2022 with 42. If the Buccaneers get average to slightly above-average QB play, there is enough remaining talent to make a run at the division title again in what is the weakest division in the league.
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Fourth-and-long: Replacing Brady is not an enviable task. Mayfield and possibly Kyle Trask will attempt to do so, and it’s not likely to be pretty. The running game, which was poor last season — Tampa Bay’s 1,308 yards was last in the NFL and produced only five TDs — doesn’t look much better this year. The Bucs sold their souls when they went all-in with Brady in pursuit of a Super Bowl title and now they’re paying for it, with some $74 million in dead salary cap space this year, which is why they’ve been forced to settle on Mayfield and had to stay quiet in free agency during the offseason.
Cann’s Call: 4-13. This doesn’t look good. This was an 8-9 team with Brady and it has gotten worse.
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