On his way to earning the lightweight title earlier this year, Dustin Poirier has confronted and beaten every possible challenger put in front of him. In April, Poirier beat featherweight champion Max Holloway to earn the interim lightweight title and set up this most epic confrontation with the undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov, who most every competent fight enthusiast will agree is the undisputed pound-for-pound UFC champion.

Nurmagomedov and will be the main focus of Saturday night’s UFC 242 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. While the passionate crowd will fuel Nurmagomedov’s will to win, there also will be unbelievable pressure on him. Meanwhile, Poirier enters with little expectation, even though he is the most complete and capable fighter Nurmagomedov has faced.

While I absolutely regard Nurmagomedov as the favorite in this bout, I feel that current pricing is inflated. I handicap Nurmagomedov a solid -220 to -240 in this spot, rather than the -420 offered (William Hill). So I’ll take the value on Poirier +340 (currently). But be patient and wait for the price on Poirier to rise, then strike at the high point.

The play: Poirier, +340.

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